That was a strong piece. Donald Trump used his inauguration speech to tell the rest of the world that his America doesn’t give a damn about what happens in other countries and to the world as a whole. ‘Splendid Isolation’ was the term used in the past; today, one would rather say ‘get lost’. The new American president’s foreign policy perspective extends as far as Panama; all other countries in the world are being put in their place with tariffs in such a way that they simply won’t disturb Donald Trump’s ‘great America’ anymore.

This speech must be called historic because it seals the end of what naive people in our country still see as a ‘rule-based international order’. This order was never really rule-based, but always power-based. However, we have now reached the point where the power of the United States makes any attempt to invoke a global rule or agreement futile and laughable from the outset.

This has enormous consequences. The greatest of these concerns the climate issue. Even if our widespread belief that we could set an example for the world with national or European policy was already on shaky ground, that mainstay has now been knocked out. When the American president explicitly states that he will use all fossil fuels found in the US, this is a clear signal to all other countries that possess oil, coal and gas not to waste another second thinking about any global restrictions on their extraction.

Any attempt to even negotiate such a restriction in the next four years is doomed to failure. The ‘ambitious countries’ can turn themselves inside out, but nothing will happen. The fight against climate change is lost.

The effects of Trump’s isolationism on the world’s economic situation should not be underestimated either. This is not only about the direct effects of his tariffs. Trump has renounced any global cooperation with such clarity that many cherished formats of international economic cooperation can be disregarded. Neither the G7 nor the G20 play a role if the US participates less than half-heartedly.

The only reaction left for the Europeans and everyone else is to focus on their own strengths and use everything at their disposal to boost their own economies so as not to fall further behind the US. This will only be possible with a massive increase in government debt (as recently shown here). If Europe and Germany do not grasp this very quickly, the consequences for European industry will soon be irreversible.

It should be borne in mind that, thanks to its expansionary fiscal policy, the US has been operating close to full employment since the end of the coronavirus pandemic and, compared to Europe, is showing enormous growth rates and booming investment activity. Trump wants to boost this economy once again and also seal it off from the outside world. If he even comes close to achieving this, the US will become a paradise for many European companies and highly qualified workers. The US may then be acting in isolation, but the negative impact on the rest of the world will be enormous.

Germany, with its huge current account surplus, will be particularly targeted by US policy. Those who do not change course quickly will be sucked into the maelstrom of Trump’s tariff policy. Unlike in his first term in office, Trump will no longer shy away from threatening his ‘allies’ in real terms and not just verbally. After this speech, there is no need at all for any empty phrases about ‘friendship’ or ‘transatlantic partnership’. Trump did not mention the ‘friends’ at all, but made it abundantly clear with every word that it is only about hard-nosed American interests. Dominique de Villepin, former Prime Minister of France, has rightly said that Europe now risks (definitively, one should add, HF) being demoted from the status of ally of the USA to that of a vassal.

Europe is now challenged. But who should take the lead? With her initial reactions, Ursula von der Leyen has already made it clear that she warmly welcomes the kick that Europe received yesterday and hopes for ‘further’ good cooperation. There is simply no figure who would have the stature to represent the fragmented continent against a dictatorial American president in such a way that Europe can play a role as an equal partner in American deals.

But one positive aspect of Trump’s speech should not be forgotten: Trump’s isolationism will also affect America’s willingness to intervene militarily in the rest of the world. His sentence, ‘I don’t want to measure America’s success only by the battles we win, but also by the wars we end, and most important, the wars we never get into,’ is more than remarkable. This sentence can also be called historic. If he is serious about this and acts accordingly, it will not be easy to certify a negative balance for him after four years.